2018 Post-Election: State of the States
The 2018 mid-term election results were a mixed bag. Rather than the blue wave that many anticipated, the country experienced a typical mid-term election where the party in control loses some ground.
That said, the victories of both Republicans and Democrats shouldn’t go unnoticed, and there are plenty of warning signs that should be observed. It’s worth taking time to carefully analyze possible trends and lessons learned for the future, but for now, these are some of the key takeaways from the 2018 mid-term election:
Under Obama, Democrats lost 29 legislative chambers, and Republicans went from 10 to 29 trifecta states. In other words, Republicans controlled both chambers of the legislature and the Governor’s office in 29 states in 2018. Republicans also controlled 4,134 of the 7,383 state legislative seats and 67 of the 99 state chambers in 2018. There was really nowhere to go but down from there.
Post-election, Republicans continue to control 62 of the 99 chambers and Democrats control 37 chambers. Five legislative chambers shifted to complete Democratic control, and the Republicans lost only five chambers.
So, how does this stack up against previous elections? Under previous presidential administrations, 350 state legislative seats were lost on average in mid-term elections. The DLCC is reporting that Democrats picked up 350 state legislative seats in the
2018 election, making their performance consistent with historical trends. Furthermore, a historical wave election at the state level occurs when one party swings at least 494 seats.
It’s also important to note that only twice since 1902 did the President’s party in power win seats: 1934 under Roosevelt and 2002 under Bush. The New York Times reported that general voting showed a nine percent swing toward Democrats in the entire election—primarily among women and in the suburbs.
This year, there were 22 battleground chambers—10 controlled by Democrats and 12 controlled by Republicans. Eighteen of the nation’s 34 trifectas were somewhat vulnerable (five were Democrat trifectas and 13 Republican trifectas). Here’s how the trifectas fared in the 2018 mid-terms:
Overall, 11 total states saw a trifecta status change in some way:
Despite heavy campaigning in Ohio by heavy hitter Democrats including President Obama and Senator Elizabeth Warren, former director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Richard Cordray’s progressive platform failed to knock out Governor-elect Mike DeWine. As of this writing, Republican gubernatorial candidates in the too close to call states of Georgia and Florida could also win which would give Republicans a major advantage in key states going into the 2020 election cycle.
In 2010, 12 state governor seats shifted from Democrat to Republican. In 2018, five of those states shifted back to Democrat leadership: Kansas, Maine, Michigan, New Mexico, and Wisconsin. The remaining six states—Florida, Iowa, Ohio, Oklahoma, Tennessee, and Wyoming—all elected Republican governors for the third straight election cycle. These results may represent a permanent resetting of the political map.
In the 2018 elections Republicans lost six governor seats: Illinois, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Nevada, and Wisconsin. Organized labor made big pushes in Illinois and Wisconsin. In Illinois big labor helped to fund a pro-union conservative candidate who ran to the right of Rauner on key issues. In Wisconsin, national labor groups focused on mobilizing grassroots public school advocacy groups. Democrat gains in Nevada and New Mexico, can be attributed to political map shifting.
We can expect that these gubernatorial shifts will create challenges for legislative policy proposals.
Ballot measures are an increasingly popular vehicle for policy change, especially among progressives who seek to block conservative ideas. Ballot measures were used to expand Medicaid in Nebraska, Utah, and Idaho. Medicaid expansion by ballot initiative failed in Montana—mostly because it was tied to a tax increase.
Throughout the states, ballot measure outcomes were mixed, and it’s not clear that special interest groups saw huge successes apart from Medicaid expansion and marijuana legalization. But if there’s one certainty, it’s that ballot measures will continue to be a popular process for impacting state-based policy.
Visit Ballotpedia for a full list of state and local ballot measures and results. Here is a quick breakdown of state ballot measures by category:
Passed in:
Defeated or restricted in:
Laws passed in:
Laws defeated in:
The conclusion is simple but profound: the next two years will have their fair share of challenges, but there will be no shortage of opportunities for state reforms. Mid-term elections are consequential because of the discussions they spark at the state level, and the states are more important than ever as change becomes more difficult to accomplish through the federal government.
The beauty of the state think tank network is that we will continue to pursue state and local solutions that help Americans flourish—no matter who is in office. As in elections past, we have an incredible opportunity to educate both state leaders and our local communities on hopeful solutions that will enhance personal freedom, innovation, opportunity, and a more peaceful society.
