State Policy Network
Poll results: Who do Americans think will win the election?

This data is from Heart + Mind Strategies’ latest Coronavirus Tracking Poll, which was conducted on September 30-October 1, 2020. This was an online quantitative survey. In total, a sample of n=1,006 interviews were conducted.

With the election less than three weeks away, the latest round of SPN’s and Heart + Mind Strategies’ polling has support for Joe Biden at 49% and support for President Trump at 43%. This includes 4% of the electorate who have already voted.

Who do Americans think will win?

Forty-two percent of Americans believe President Trump will win (+3 from mid-September); 42% believe Joe Biden will win (+2); and 16% are unsure or expect someone else to win. 

In polling conducted on September 16-17, 2020, President Trump had a clear advantage of being a candidate Americans wanted to vote for rather than against. That advantage has disappeared.

The number of Americans concerned that President Trump will not yield power if he loses is up four percentage points to 46%. The jumps are more drastic among Republicans (40%, +11) and Independents (38%, +16).

Concern that Joe Biden won’t accept the presidential election if he loses is at 29%, which is up seven percentage points from September 16-17.

How results are tracking among votes already cast?

Of the 4% who have already voted, 63% voted for Joe Biden and 19% voted for President Trump. However, this is a small sample size and likely influenced by Democrats’ propensity to vote early.

About this polling

State Policy Network is working with Heart + Mind Strategies to track the American public’s opinions through this time of upheaval and change. The Heart + Mind Strategies’ Coronavirus Tracking Poll has been fielded weekly since March 18-19, 2020. In June, the polling schedule shifted to bi-weekly, with the most recent field dates of September 30-October 1, 2020, informing this article. This was an online quantitative survey. In total, a sample of n=1,006 interviews were conducted.

Categories: Polling
Policy Issues: Elections and Voting
Organization: State Policy Network