By Collin Roth, State Policy Network’s Director of Strategy Development

Preparing for a legislative session before knowing election outcomes, or the preferences of the newly elected, can be very difficult and may seem pointless. Why craft a detailed plan only to throw it out? At the same time, if we don’t plan, we’ll be caught flat-footed as the competition races ahead of us.
 
Fortunately, there is a flexible planning method for these situations called scenario planning, in which you devise possible scenarios and craft a loose plan for each. Doing so will speed up your post-election planning and put you ahead of the competition. You can do it in four easy steps. 

1. Make a list of your current top 10 policy and organizational goals.

This is your starting position—what your team seeks to achieve right now and in the near future.

Examples:

1. Education Savings Accounts (ESAs) reform for 5,000 kids becomes law by the end of 2025.
2. We will have raised $2 million by December 31, 2024.
3. Hire a digital strategist and launch an owned audience project by Q2 2025.

2. Create a rough list of possible scenarios you will face.

Who will the governor be and what will the majorities and factions be in the House and Senate? How could your state courts change? What are possible outcomes of ballot measures? Will there be social unrest?

The level of detail in scenarios is more art than science. It can help to start with broad scenarios. If those scenarios are unhelpful to your decisions, narrow them down and be more specific. Avoid trying to predict the exact outcomes. The intent is to increase the flexibility of your plans regardless of the outcome, so use a bit of judgement to identify a range of likely outcomes.

Examples:

1. Democrat trifecta maintained. Not much changes.
2. New speaker is unfavorable to our policy priorities.
3. Ballot Measure 4 passes, raising property taxes by 10 percent.

3. Run each of your goals through the relevant scenarios.

Ask yourself the questions below to consider how the strategy for achieving your goals changes in each scenario.

Example:

Goal: Education Savings Accounts for 5,000 kids becomes law by the end of 2025.

1. What are the chances we achieve our ESA goal given each scenario?
2. What about each scenario presents a new opportunity for this goal?
3. What about each scenario makes this goal more challenging?

4. Sketch out loose plans for a range of scenarios.

The point is not to craft detailed plans. It is to help you react quicker as you get more information and learn final outcomes.

Ask yourself:

1. Are our goals still relevant given all of
   these scenarios? Do we need to add or subtract from our goals list? What should
   be added or subtracted?
2. What
   opportunities should we be ready to seize?
3. What
   challenges should we be ready to address?

With these loose plans mapped out, you’ll be in a better position to react and navigate the landscape once election results are final.

Learn more about strategic support for your organization

State Policy Network offers various strategic planning services for our member organizations. Contact SPN’s Director of Strategy Development, Collin Roth (croth@spn.org), to learn more about how SPN can help your think tank go further, faster, by starting with organizational strategy.