Erin Norman is the Lee Family Fellow and Senior Director of Communications Strategies at State Policy Network.
There are numerous signs that American politics are in flux. As true contests for the party nominations fizzled out early in 2024, many journalists took to cataloging surprising changes in voting patterns. Many articles have been written about how Democrats are losing Black and Hispanic voters. And youth voters, a key component of the left’s coalition for the last 30 years, are not falling into line behind Biden. Furthermore, new data from Gallup shows partisan swings over 22 years based on socio-economic status.
Even with these shifts, it would be a mistake to think groups, like Black voters on the left or white women on the right, will shift by substantial margins for the Presidential contest. It would be unprecedented to see a complete reversal in one election cycle. But there are signs that traditional party alignment, and what that means for policy support, is not the reliable indicator it is thought to be.
For example, data from a recent State Policy Network’s State Voices poll shows how self-identified partisans defy expectations. First, half of self-identified Republicans think a strong federal government is the best way to solve problems. While this is significantly lower than the percentage of Democrats who favor strong authority from Washington, it is not enough to assume that a right-of-center audience will necessarily be in favor of federalism or local control.
On the other side, more than half of Democrats believe that federal workers are politically motivated—only 13-points behind Republicans. It’s possible that messages about government corruption aren’t written in a way that resonates with Democrats, but the potential to talk about reforms to ensure a fairer system for all is definitely there.
Almost two years ago, an opinion piece by William Moloney ran in The Hill, highlighting the beginning of the third great political realignment in the United States. In it, Moloney showed that while blocs of Democrats have defected in the midterms, they typically returned to the party in Presidential years—causing many strategists on the left to brush aside the issue. He argued, however, that political realignment is not just about one election but changes over the long-term, of which bouncing back and forth between parties is a telling first sign.
As state think tanks work to pass good policy in the states, it’s important to start with an open mind about who is a supporter and who is an opponent. In this moment of fluid party identification, knowing if someone considers themselves Blue or Red is not enough to know if they support your policy aims.
