Coronavirus Poll, Wave 16: Confusion, trust in leadership, and school reopenings

This summary shares the latest data from Wave 16 (August 5-6, 2020) of SPN’s and Heart+Mind Strategies’ bi-weekly coronavirus poll, which follows Americans’ reactions to the pandemic and its impact on health, education, economic wellbeing, and other key aspects of daily life.

The latest poll, conducted on August 5-6, 2020, reveals healthcare, the economy, and jobs and unemployment are top issues on Americans’ minds. Americans are focusing less on virus-related news, yet they remain eager for more data to understand what’s going on and what comes next for themselves and their families.

The current level of concern

For Americans, the coronavirus remains a health concern:

76% view the coronavirus as a real threat, whereas 24% believe the virus has been blown out of proportion. These percentages are consistent with the public’s sentiment since March 2020.
The number of people saying public health is “good” or “excellent” is up five points to 28%. The number saying it is “poor” or “in crisis” is down four points to 42%.

Americans’ concerns are compounded by a lack of clear information.

64% say they are concerned or cautious. This percentage is down somewhat from the 73% high on April 1-2, 2020, and is tied with the low from July 8-9, 2020.
One in five say they are confused—this has been the average and represents an opportunity for thoughtful organizations to provide information and clarity.
58% are confused by messages from the US government, a sentiment that has been consistent throughout the 21 weeks of this survey. Only 30% say they are confident about the messages.

Trust in institutions and leadership

When it comes to reopening, a majority still favor making decisions closer to home. Fifty-seven percent thinks reopening decisions should rest with states, and 27% believe the federal government should make final decisions. Sixteen percent of Americans are unsure.

Public opinion is split on what reopening guidelines should include. Forty-three percent say guidelines for protecting ourselves and others should be based on local conditions. Thirty-nine percent would prefer to see a strict approach, while 18% are unsure about what approach would be most effective.

In addition to reopening decisions, the upcoming presidential election is impacting Americans’ confidence in leadership.

62% are concerned that President Trump will not accept the outcome of the presidential election if he loses, with 24% feeling extremely concerned only 14% feeling a little concerned.
46% are concerned that Joe Biden will not accept the outcome of the presidential election if he loses. Of this 46%, 13% are extremely, 17% are a little concerned, and 37% are not concerned at all.
45% think Biden will win, and 39% think Trump will win. Eleven percent are unsure.

Going back to school

Some schools started back this week, and Americans are following the news about it almost as closely as the outbreak itself.

Following at least daily: 64% following the coronavirus outbreak (+4 from July 22-23), 45% following public school schedules (+6 from July 22-23), and 42% protests for racial justice (+1 from July 22-23).
Following some or a little bit: 48% following the coronavirus outbreak (+0 from July 22-23), 48% following protests for racial justice (+0 from July 22-23), and 32% following the coronavirus outbreak (-4 from July 22-23).

Fifty-two percent think a return to normal isn’t possible until school and childcare services resume. Forty-nine percent disagreed with the statement that K-12 public schools should resume in-person and full-time for the 2020-2021 school year.

Parents responding to the poll indicated timeframes they are considering for letting their child return to school or daycare:

Within the next month: 31% plan to let their child return to school, 29% plan to return their child to daycare.
Within the next three months: 50% plan to let their child return to school, 52% plan to let their child go back to daycare.
Within the next six months: 70% plan to let their child return to school, 67% plan to let their child go back to daycare.
More than a year: 18% plan to let their child return to school, 18% plan to let their child return to daycare.

In this wave of polling, parent responders also shared how their school systems are approaching the 2020-2021 school year. Most school systems have plans to embrace a hybrid of in-person instructions and online learning.

16% are full-time in-person.
35% have a mix of in-person and online/virtual instruction.
17% have 100% online/virtual.
16% said no announcements so far.
17% were unsure.

Healthcare: Vaccines and treatments

Seventy-four percent think there will be a vaccine in the next 12 months. But will they take it?

32% would get a vaccine as soon as possible.
51% would wait a bit to see what happens.
17% would never get it.

Economy and a return to normalcy

People have some hope of returning to normal activities on a small scale. Large-scale exposures are pegged as being a year out or more.
In the next month:

35% plan to eat at a restaurant.
26% plan to return to their place of work in person.
22% plan to attend a worship service.
17% plan to go to the gym.

It will be more than a year before:

40% attend a concert, play or performing arts event.
39% attend a professional sporting event.
36% take a personal vacation or trip by plane or train.
30% take a business trip by plan or train.

Americans views are somewhat divided about how coronavirus cases will change come fall and what it will mean for the economy.

38% of people are less likely to think their state will go to a second round of shelter-in-place—a slight decrease from 41% in the July 22-23 poll.
47% think that it’s likely that the US will see a second wave of coronavirus cases in the fall that shuts down the economy again and leads to new stay-at-home and shelter-in-place orders. This percentage is on par with the July 22-23 poll where 48% thought this second wave of cases and closures would be likely.
One in five feel strongly that the country should stay shut down until there’s a vaccine or treatment. Twenty-eight percent somewhat agree with them, while 14% completely disagree and 18% somewhat disagree. Nineteen percent also neither agree or disagree.

Forty-five percent still think we must balance public health concerns with economic concerns. However, 42% think all of our energy should be devoted to public health. The biggest grouping seems to be in the “somewhat” categories (19% and 20% respectively) and the undecideds (12%).

Understanding the impact on Americans’ values

Fifty-four percent feel that the pandemic is creating divisions among people and across the nation. Only 26% feel it’s bringing us closer together—a new low since this polling project started in March 2020.

Americans are still feeling a decline when it comes to values that shape a peaceful, secure life:

46% feel that their sense of social order has worsened (compared to 47% on July 22-23).
43% feel that their sense of peace of mind has decreased (compared to 41% on July 22-23).
43% feel that their sense of freedom has declined (compared to 47% on July 22-23).

Expectations for government’s response

Despite their reduced focus on virus-related news, people are more likely to want the government to focus on it. Support for letting other policy agenda items sit until the virus is addressed is up six points to 35%.

There is also an uptick in the number of people who want to see centralized decisions about re-opening the economy (27%, +4 from July 22-23), although the number saying we need Asian-style government control is the same (39%, +0 from July 22-23).

Forty percent think businesses have done a good or excellent job in response to the pandemic (+4 from July 22-23), 42% think a fair job (46% from July 22-23), and 18% bad or terrible (+0 from July 22-23).

About SPN’s coronavirus polling

Since March 2020, State Policy Network and Heart + Mind Strategies have tracked American reactions and needs in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic. SPN shares these insights on a weekly basis to help nonprofit think tanks effectively communicate with their states about policies that will solve local problems in ways that truly meet their communities’ needs.