In 2016, Donald Trump improved on Mitt Romney’s 2012 numbers among Black, Hispanic, and Asian voters. Then he did even better in 2020. Whether this is a broader partisan and ideological shift or a phenomenon that is specific to Trump, it is here for the 2024 presidential rematch election—and current polling suggests Trump’s gains among non-white voters are growing. 

Mismatched Priorities are Driving Non-White Voters Away from the Democratic Party  

A mismatch between the priorities of Black and Hispanic voters and the Democratic party might be driving some of this shift. According to a recent poll by State Policy Network, over one-third of Americans (36 percent) say the economy is the top issue on their mind when voting in federal elections, but that number jumps to 45 percent among Black and Hispanic voters. The corresponding number among the most liberal Democrats is only 28 percent. Indeed, the focus of the most active liberal groups tends to be on abortion, climate change, and international conflicts, not economic concerns like inflation, employment, and unemployment. 

When the Biden Administration does talk about the economy, the message doesn’t match what voters are experiencing. In his State of the Union address, Biden called the United States economy “the envy of the world.” While it’s true that voters are more positive about the economy than they were in 2023, they are still considerably more negative towards Biden’s economy than Trump’s, which 65 percent of registered voters remember as good. Furthermore, a recent Economist/YouGov poll shows that while nearly half of voters intending to vote for Biden in November think the economy is getting better, just 19 percent of Black voters and 14 percent of Hispanic voters feel the same way. 

When voting blocs that traditionally vote for one party start to swing in large numbers (like the South in the Civil Rights era or suburban women in the 2010s), it can be difficult to tell at first if the swing is temporary or the start of a larger shift. It’s clear that non-white voters are moving away from the Democratic Party, but it’s unclear if they are leaving a party that is getting too progressive for them, moving towards the general Republican philosophy, or simply to an individual man they find worthy of their vote. 

Both Parties Need to Focus on Voters’ Economic Concerns  

What is clear is that non-white voters shifting their party and candidate preferences have clear issue priorities, namely economic issues. Just as Democrats cannot expect loyalty from these voters if they focus on social issues instead of economic concerns, Republicans should not look at the swing of non-white voters as an overall embrace of their broader platform. Either party looking to win in 2024 must focus their campaigns and policies on the economic realities that these voters are facing.